It's that time of year again - when the Leagues are complete, and the play-offs in progress - and attention turns to looking at the promotion and relegation probabilities in the various divisions. According to the regulations, the procedure appears relatively straightforward, but as we all know the words "straightforward" and "basketball" sit uneasily in the same sentence, and so each year "Pawprint" attempts to unravel the mysteries of the reality. First the formalities. The formal regulations governing promotion and relegation are as follows:
All of which looks very simple, but the devil, as they say, is in the detail, and the exact wording is crucial, as will become apparent. There doesn't appear to be any dispute about this year's relegation from EBL1 to 2, with the two promoted teams, Nottingham Knights and Kings Lynn Fury having struggled throughout, and indeed the Knights' final match programme admitted that they had performed well below the standard required. In the past outside factors have occasionally worked to save teams in the bottom two. Last year Solent and Kingston were spared by the expansion of EBL1 to 14 teams, and the year before Kingston also retained their status when Sutton pulled out of the league. This year, however, no such reprieves appear likely. The clear favourites to replace Nottingham and Kings Lynn in Division 1 are the top two teams in EBL2, West Herts Warriors and Mansfield Express. Both declined promotion last season (Mansfield having finished second, and West Herts appearing in the Championship Final), but I believe that both will apply this time. That leaves them needing to convince the Association that they are capable of "meeting the required standards both on and off court". I don't have any detailed knowledge of how their performance, and potential have been, and will be, judged, but I can see no obvious impediments as far as the Champions are concerned. They have used their extra season in Division 2 well, and their established players have continued to improve, while the players they have brought in, such as Tom Frederick, have added an extra dimension to their play. Most of those players now need the challenge and demands of EBL1 competition. For Mansfield the situation is slightly less clear-cut. They have a strong and young team, and their recruitment of English players, such as David Watts, show that they have the ability to attract good players - and that their success is not entirely due to the scoring exploits of Drew DeMuth! Similarly, they are well organised off-court, and their present venue is, to my mind, well up to the required standard. However, the uncertainty surrounding the future of a good spectator venue in Mansfield may count against them. With Mansfield Leisure Centre due to be "Tescoed" in the near future, there have been long negotiations with Mansfield Council regarding a replacement venue. At one time it appeared that such a venue would not have sufficient spectator facilities even for Division 2, and the future of League basketball in Mansfield was thrown into serious doubt. However, now a purpose-built venue, managed by several local sports clubs, including the Express, is a distinct possibility. The timescale, though, is still unclear, and it remains to be seen whether a "possible" venue will be considered good enough for them to be admitted to Division 1. The problem is that it could prove to be a "chicken and egg" situation - with Mansfield requiring the facility in order to gain promotion - while the delivery of the facility would become more likely if they were already a division 1 team! A third team from division 2 is also keen to gain promotion, with Northampton Neptunes, who finished third, having expressed their intention to apply. They appear well qualified both on and off court, but their hopes received a severe blow when they crashed out of the play-offs at the first hurdle, at home to Plymouth II, despite taking a commanding 32-13 lead in the first quarter. Fourth-placed Derby Trailblazers, on the other hand, could possibly stake a claim, if they chose to do so, as they now play at the well-appointed Moorways Leisure Centre. They would need, though, to at least reach the Championship Final if they were to make a realistic bid for promotion - and I'm not even sure that they would wish to do so after just one year in Division 2. One factor that may affect clubs' decisions on whether to apply for promotion is a degree of uncertainty over the future. For some time now there have been mutterings among some of the EBL1 clubs that perhaps the expansion to 14 teams was a step too far, too soon. EB (wisely in my opinion) resisted calls from some quarters to consider cutting the division to 12 again for the coming season, since it would not be reasonable to change the regulations part way through the season. There are still some pressures, however, to consider reducing EBL1 again at some time in the future. If that were to happen (though if it did, I would hope that such a move would be staggered over two seasons) it could mean that finishing outside the bottom two would not guarantee survival, and any promoted club could just find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time. Meanwhile, down at the foot of EBL 2, two of the established teams, Team Bath Romans and Colchester United find themselves stranded in the bottom two. In a highly competitive season, both finished with seven wins (just eight points shy of a top four finish) - enough to beat the drop in any of the ten previous seasons since a third division was established! The prospect of life in Division Three will be a particular blow to Bath, who worked their way up from NBL Division 3 (which would be EBL4 if it existed today) to EBL 1 in successive seasons, only to drop back down into EBL2 after one year in the top flight ... and two years later (the longest continuous stint they've spent in any division), just as they have the use of their excellent new facility at Bath University (which is hosting the EBL3 and EBL2 Women's Championship Finals), they're on their way down again. An even greater irony is that one of the teams highly fancied to pass them in the opposite direction is Filton Flyers - based on the Bristol franchise that was born when the Romans left that city to move to Bath, and coached by Andreas Kapoulas ... the ex-coach of Bath! The prognosis on promotion from EBL3 is much more difficult, however, since "The winners of each EBL Division Three may make an application to join EBL Division Two " but there are only two places available in EBL2, and four teams entitled to apply. Manchester Magic II would seem to have the best claim, as they went the whole season unbeaten in their League fixtures, but I'm unsure whether the Manchester club are considering subjecting their development team to the greater rigours (and longer, and more expensive, journeys) of Division 2 - though it seems to have worked well enough for Plymouth Raiders. Filton Flyers would seem to have a much stronger case, as they have reached the Championship Final ... defeating Manchester, at the Amaechi Basketball Centre, in the semi-final. With Filton having spent this season in the same division as Bristol Academy (in fact, if not in name, their development team), it would certainly make sense for the Flyers to take to the air at a higher level. With Bath coming down to Division 3, promotion for Filton would also ensure that the West Country continued to enjoy middle-level basketball. Then there is East Kent Crusaders, who won a highly-competitive South-East division, and who reached the EBL Shield Final. In their two seasons in the League they have firmly established themselves as a well-run, proactive club, and they come from an area which needs the impact of division 2 basketball to help it to develop. The fourth divisional winners are Loughborough Cardinals, and, like their four rivals, they fully deserve the opportunity of playing at a higher level. With Martin Ford as coach they have made huge strides this season, but, as with any University-based team, there is always the question of how enduring their squad, and their success, will be. Those four, then, are entitled to apply, but the regulations do not rule out applications from other teams, and there are several who could make a good claim for a higher status. Team Northumbria, after an uncertain start, have had an excellent season, once coach Greg Modzelewski had finally assembled his team, and though they lost twice to Manchester in the league, they knocked the Magic out of the Shield and went on to win the Final. I believe that they are planning to apply for promotion, and a good omen for Newcastle Eagles' nursery team is that every previous winner of that competition (except Brixton, who declined) have been promoted in the same season. On the other hand, their cause will not have been helped when they crashed out of the play-offs in the first round. Surprise team of the latter part of the league season, and certainly of the play-offs, are Sheffield Sabres. A late run, once their link with the Sharks' Junior set-up became firmly established, took them up to third place in the Midlands division. They began the play-offs by stunning Northumbria, in Newcastle, and proceeded to travel to the opposite end of the country and knock out East Kent, in overtime, in the quarter final. That gained them home advantage in the semis, and they took full advantage, to dispose of a strong, and experienced, Taunton Tigers side. If the Sabres wished to apply for promotion, they would have a strong case - one that would become even stronger if they overturn Filton in next weekend's Championship Final. However, Sheffield already has good representation at a higher level, with the Sharks in the BBL, and the Arrows in EBL1, and it may be felt that other areas of the country deserve to have teams in Division Two. Taunton Tigers are another team in an area which could benefit from a higher level of competition, and they have experienced lift in higher divisions in the past. A good season saw them lose just three games in the South-West, but if they were thinking of staking an outside claim for promotion their chances were probably damaged by that Championship semi-final defeat in Sheffield. My (very personal) order of preference, based on what I've learned about the teams over the course of the season (and also on a fair amount of guesswork), and (I hope) with no disrespect to any of the candidates, would be for Filton and East Kent to take the promotion places, just pipping Loughborough (for the reasons given above), Manchester (a second-team), Northumbria (a good claim, but with four divisional winners ahead of them), Sabres (needing a consistent full season) and Taunton (nearly, but not quite, in league, Shield and Championship). Whatever happens, there are likely to be four or five teams who end up very disappointed. I would hope that there are a good number of new applicants for membership of the league for next year. If so, might it give the opportunity to split division three into a two-region Division Three (giving its members a better standard of competition), and a smaller four-region Division Four - which was one of the original proposals when Division 3 was expanded twelve months ago?
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